Market Insights: Trade Tension Down, Economic Data Up

Raymond M Backers, CFP®, MPAS®, EA, APMA®

June 09, 2025

Stocks rallied last week as investors responded to upbeat economic data and easing trade tensions.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 1.50 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.18 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.17 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, picked up 0.78 percent.^1,2

S&P 500 Closes Above 6,000 (Again)

Early in the week, markets notched steady gains as investors awaited key economic indicators and monitored ongoing trade discussions. Megacap tech names—particularly AI chipmakers—led the broader market higher, as sentiment stayed bullish on prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal.³

Midweek, however, concerns over tariffs and a notable decline in one megacap tech stock slowed overall market momentum. Recent conversations between the U.S. and Chinese leadership helped investors envision progress toward a trade deal between the two nations.^4,5

On Friday, stocks pushed higher following the release of the May jobs report, which showed an addition of 139,000 jobs, above expectations of 125,000. The S&P 500 closed above 6,000 for the first time since February—a key psychological hurdle for some market participants. And the Dow erased all its 2025 year-to-date losses.^6,7

Jobs & Trade

Amid considerable market noise, stocks pushed higher last week. Here are three takeaways:

First, the upbeat jobs report was strong enough to ease some economic concerns.
Second, the jobs report showed that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, and wage growth increased by 3.9 percent year-over-year. These figures also helped ease slowdown fears.⁷
Last, despite some political squabbles, trade talks progressed this week, with the U.S. striking a deal with Germany while continuing to move forward with China.⁸

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Wholesale Inventories.

Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Federal Budget. 10-Year Treasury Note Auction.

Thursday: Jobless Claims (weekly). Purchaser Price Index (PPI). 30-Year Treasury Note Auction.

Friday: Consumer Sentiment.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; June 6, 2025}^{The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

Thursday: Adobe Inc. (ADBE)

^{Source: Zacks, June 6, 2025.}^{Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“The road less traveled is sometimes fraught with barricades, bumps, and uncharted terrain. But it is on that road where your character is truly tested.”

– Katie Couric

How to Check the Status of Your Federal Tax Refund

Filing taxes has become more seamless in recent years due to e-filing. It's also easy to check the status of your refund if you anticipate one. The IRS has a tool called Where's My Refund? where taxpayers can check the status of their refund within 24 hours of the IRS acknowledging the taxpayer's e-filed return. You can also see a personalized refund date after the return is processed.

You can access the tool online on the IRS website or via their app. It has three phases: return received, refund approved, and refund sent. The IRS recommends setting up direct deposit to receive your refund even faster. The tool is updated once a day.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS⁹

Channel Your Inner Cat and Cow

The cat-cow stretch is fantastic for your back, pelvis, neck, and more. Plus, it's simple to learn and simple to do!

First, start with your hands and knees on the floor. Your hands should be shoulder-width apart, and your knees should be hip-width apart. You can do the cat-cow stretch on a mat or carpeted floor.

Next, inhale a deep breath, arch your back, tilt your pelvis downward, and look to the ceiling. Don't force your neck too far up.

Then, exhale a big breath and curve your back (like a scary Halloween cat). Tuck your chin into your chest and pull your pelvis up as you curve your back.

The goal is to move through these movements with your breath.

Tip adapted from Very Well Fit¹⁰

Three playing cards lie face down on a table. A jack is to the left of a queen. To the left of a spade is a diamond. A king is left of a heart. A spade is right of a king. What are the three cards?

Last Week's Riddle: When I change my jacket, I make a loud noise and become larger but weigh less. What am I?
Answer: Popcorn.

Bengal Tiger and Cub, Bandhavgarh National Park
Madhya Pradesh, India

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. WSJ.com, June 6, 2025}

^{2. Investing.com, June 6, 2025}

^{3. CNBC.com, June 3, 2025}

^{4. CNBC.com, June 5, 2025}

^{5. MarketWatch.com, June 5, 2025}

^{6. MarketWatch.com, June 6, 2025}

^{7. WSJ.com, June 6, 2025}

^{8. MarketWatch.com, June 6, 2025}

^{9. IRS.gov, September 20, 2024}

^{10. Very Well Fit, December 12, 2024}

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Advisory services are offered through Q2 Wealth Management (“Q2”), a Registered Investment Adviser. Insurance products and services are offered through Q2 Wealth Insurance, an affiliated insurance company. Q2 Wealth Management and Q2 Wealth Insurance are not affiliated with or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any other government agency. ⦁ Information presented herein is intended for a broad audience, as educational in nature, and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities, products, or services. This content may be dated. It is not intended to provide any tax or legal advice or provide the basis for any financial decision(s). Be sure to consult your investment adviser, tax professional, or legal counsel concerning your specific situation before considering any information discussed herein. ⦁ Investing always involves risk and possible loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. ⦁ Q2 has a reasonable belief that this marketing does not include any false or materially misleading statements or omissions of facts regarding Q2’s services, investments, or client experiences. Q2 has a reasonable belief that the content as a whole will not cause an untrue or misleading implication regarding Q2’s services, investments, or client experiences. ⦁ This communication shall in no way be construed or interpreted as a solicitation to sell or offer to sell advisory services to any residents other than those States in which Q2 is registered or where otherwise legally permitted. ⦁ The securities industry personnel in question may only transact business in those states where they are registered or otherwise excluded or exempted from state registration requirements. ⦁ All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. All information is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of Q2. ⦁ The Adviser believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact, or misleading information. This content may be dated. ⦁ “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisers, or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes”, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. We request that you do not post or comment. ⦁ Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client's evaluation. ⦁ Charts, graphs, and formulas may be discussed and displayed which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.